- Title
- Historical variability of southwest Pacific tropical cyclone counts since 1855
- Creator
- Magee, A. D.; Verdon-Kidd, D. C.
- Relation
- Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 46, Issue 12, p. 6936-6945
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082900
- Publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2019
- Description
- Tropical cyclones (TCs) represent a significant threat to people and places of the southwest Pacific (0°-35°S, 135°E-120°W). TC modeling is hindered by exceptionally short TC records (typically from 1970/1982 to present) because the brevity of TC data does not allow us to appropriately quantify TC-related risk and/or identify long-term trends/variability. Therefore, in this paper, we derive a series of statistical hindcast models to reconstruct TC counts in the western (135°E-160°E) and eastern southwest Pacific (160°E-120°W) regions to 1855. Reanalysis data representing Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature variability and genesis parameters required for tropical cyclogenesis were identified and trained on post-1970 TC observations and applied to the pre-1970 period. By hindcasting up to an additional 115 TC seasons, using four separate hindcasts, this study offers a unique perspective on historical TC variability and reiterates the need to place the recent downward trend in TC counts within the context of long-term variability.
- Subject
- tropical cyclones; southwest Pacific; hindcast models; historical data
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1409624
- Identifier
- uon:36048
- Identifier
- ISSN:0094-8276
- Language
- eng
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